The annual wine report from Silicon Valley Bank has become a reference point for wineries trying to read the market without getting lost in anecdotes. The 2025 edition keeps a clear focus on consumption, pricing, and channel health, while also explaining why many owners remain surprisingly optimistic even as key indicators trend downward. The picture it paints is not a quick rebound, but a long cycle that will reward disciplined strategy.
One of the report’s central themes is demographic change. It argues that older consumers, particularly those over 60 who historically indexed higher for wine purchases, are gradually sunsetting as a core demand engine, while younger cohorts index lower for wine and often prefer other beverage categories. For the industry, that shift is not a temporary mood, it is a structural challenge that requires a different approach to communication and value.
The data points outlined in SVB’s 2025 findings underline the pressure. The report projects that total wine category sales would finish 2024 with negative volume growth, estimated between minus 3 percent and minus 1 percent. It also reports a weighted average 3.4 percent revenue decline among wineries, with the top quartile growing strongly while the bottom quartile declined sharply, a gap that highlights how uneven the current market is.
Channel mix is another dividing line. SVB notes that wholesale heavy wineries fared worse than brands oriented toward direct to consumer, reinforcing the idea that margins and customer relationships matter as much as raw volume. The report also anticipates tasting room visitation to be slightly lower in 2025 than in 2024, a reminder that even experiential routes are not immune to broader demand softness.
Looking forward, SVB’s analysis suggests the boomer impact on sales declines could peak between 2029 and 2031, while premium wine could return to flat growth between 2027 and 2029. The report also anticipates that off premise may not return to flat growth until roughly 2028 to 2031, a timeline that implies a long adjustment rather than a quick snap back. Against that backdrop, the report stresses that growing consumption share with consumers in the 30 to 45 segment is critical, and that the industry can shorten the recovery by evolving marketing and promotion strategies to meet those consumers at their value points.
For operators, the lifestyle implication is practical rather than abstract. The winners in this cycle are likely to be the brands that translate heritage into relevance, simplify choices, and create experiences that feel worth the time and money. If the recovery is a marathon, SVB’s message is to train with intention, focusing on channel strategy, pricing discipline, and authentic engagement instead of waiting for the old market to return.